The UK and EU are on the brink of a potential breakthrough in their relationship, with renewed negotiations on defence cooperation in sight. This comes as a surprise to many, given the recent tensions and failed talks.
A rocky road to collaboration:
Talks between the UK and the EU regarding the Security Action for Europe (Safe) defence fund, worth a staggering €150bn (£130bn), hit a dead end in November 2025. The EU was accused of setting an entry price too high, causing a rift in negotiations. France, at the center of the controversy, denies any responsibility for the breakdown, but diplomatic sources hint at lingering tensions with other member states, particularly Germany, who eagerly awaits the UK's involvement in Safe.
The French condition:
A European source reveals France's desire to link the UK's participation in Safe to another defence program, for which EU leaders have approved a €90bn loan to Ukraine, secured by frozen Russian assets in Belgium. This precondition is not welcomed by Germany, creating a complex dynamic.
A missed opportunity or a chance for redemption?
The failure to reach an agreement in November was an embarrassing setback, considering the previous summit's promise of enhanced cooperation. However, the political landscape has shifted, and there's a renewed eagerness for the UK to join a future round of Safe, especially after Donald Trump's controversial statements about Greenland and NATO.
Beyond trade:
Keir Starmer, speaking in Beijing, emphasized the UK's desire to strengthen ties with the EU beyond trade. He suggested exploring additional deals in sectors like chemicals and cars, which face impending tariffs for non-electric vehicles. Starmer also mentioned negotiations on a youth mobility scheme, aiming for controlled free travel.
A divided Labour Party:
Starmer faces internal pressure from his party for closer EU ties, especially given the uncertain relationship with the US under Trump. Labour MP Stella Creasy advocates for a comprehensive approach, arguing that the UK's future security lies in a strong working relationship with the EU, encompassing defence, national, and economic aspects.
Upcoming meetings:
Maroš Šefčovič, the EU's trade commissioner, will be in London next week for discussions on trade, energy, and fisheries. Defence is not officially on the agenda, but the UK is keen to revive negotiations. Šefčovič will also meet with Nick Thomas-Symonds and Rachel Reeves to discuss various matters, including geoeconomics.
The price of partnership:
The UK government was willing to contribute financially to the defence fund, but the parties' expectations differed significantly. The EU demanded around €2bn, while the UK considered a contribution in the hundreds of millions more reasonable. This fund, raised by the European Commission through credit markets, provides long-term loans to member states for military procurement, fostering a rapid build-up of defence capabilities.
The road ahead:
With the UK ineligible for Safe loans, joining the program as a third country would allow UK companies to bid for procurement contracts, potentially boosting the British defence industry. However, the question remains: can the UK and EU bridge their differences and forge a successful defence partnership, or will past disagreements continue to hinder progress?
What do you think about this potential revival of UK-EU defence cooperation? Is it a step towards a stronger alliance, or are there underlying issues that need addressing first?
