The Moon's Shackleton crater, shrouded in eternal darkness, holds a treasure trove of resources, most notably water ice. This year, a new race is on to harness this precious commodity, with the U.S. and China vying for the lead. The stakes are high, as the first to succeed will secure a first-mover advantage, establishing extraction infrastructure and shaping the future of lunar water use.
Blue Origin's MK1 Pathfinder mission is set to launch in the spring aboard the New Glenn rocket, with the goal of touching down near the Shackleton crater. The 26-foot-tall lander will validate its hardware and systems, and if successful, it will become a valuable asset to NASA, carrying the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) to the lunar south pole in 2027. VIPER will search for volatile resources, including water ice, in the Shackleton crater and other permanently shadowed areas.
Meanwhile, China's Chang'e 7 mission is on track to launch in August aboard the Long March 5 rocket, delivering an orbiter, lander, rover, and 'hopper' probe to the Moon. This lander will also touch down near the Shackleton crater, deploying the rover and hopper probe to study the lunar surface and search for water ice. With a potential head start of a year, China could gain a significant strategic advantage in the race for lunar water.
The Outer Space Treaty prohibits nations from claiming sovereign control over lunar resources, but the first-mover advantage would allow China to set industry standards, develop proprietary extraction technologies, and establish de facto exclusive operational zones. However, the success of these missions is uncertain, as controlled lunar landings are extremely challenging, and the rough terrain near the Shackleton crater adds another layer of complexity. If these high-stakes missions do launch this year, 2026 could become a pivotal moment in the history of lunar exploration.
