The release of Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from prison has sparked a frenzy of media speculation about his future role in Thai politics. At 76 years old, Thaksin's return to the political arena after a long exile and a recent jail sentence is a significant development, but it may not be the comeback he had hoped for. The 'Thaksin era' in Thailand, which has dominated the country's politics for the past 25 years, is likely to come to an end, as the conservative forces that have long opposed him now hold more power than ever before.
Thaksin's political journey has been a rollercoaster ride. From his rise to power in 2001, he has been a polarizing figure, with devoted supporters and bitter opponents alike. His parties have consistently won elections, even after he was ousted by a coup in 2006. However, the fear of his ambition and influence among the royalist establishment has led to multiple court rulings against his allies, violent street clashes, and another coup in 2014. Thaksin's refusal to step back and his determination to remain a central figure in Thai politics have only fueled the tension.
The recent 'grand bargain' that allowed Thaksin to return to Thailand in 2023 was short-lived. The conservative forces, who had previously allowed him to return, quickly moved against him, with the courts ruling that his six months in a police hospital were a ruse to avoid serving his sentence. This verdict followed the collapse of the Pheu Thai-led coalition government, and Thaksin's daughter was dismissed as prime minister over a leaked phone conversation. The conservative courts have once again shown their power, and Thaksin's party, Pheu Thai, suffered a devastating defeat in the February general election, dropping to third place.
The political landscape in Thailand has shifted significantly. The nationalist sentiment that surged after the border war with Cambodia has benefited the conservative Bhumjaithai party, pushing Pheu Thai to the sidelines. Thaksin's release from prison has highlighted the party's struggle to regain its former glory. The political analyst Ken Lohatepanont notes that Pheu Thai has been 'sidelined as just a mid-sized party', and the challenge for Thaksin and his party is of a different magnitude than before.
The mistrust between Thaksin and the Thai conservatives is now likely insurmountable. Even if Thaksin still yearns for a prominent political role, he will almost certainly be barred from getting one. The conservative forces have shown their determination to maintain control, and Thaksin's refusal to step back and allow the newer generation leaders to take the spotlight may have sealed his fate. The 'Thaksin era' is over, and the country is now facing a new political reality, one that may be less dominated by the controversial former prime minister.
In my opinion, Thaksin's release from prison is a significant moment in Thai politics, but it is also a reminder of the country's ongoing struggle with political instability and the power of conservative forces. The 'grand bargain' that allowed him to return has quickly fallen apart, and the conservative courts have once again shown their influence. The future of Thai politics remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the era of Thaksin Shinawatra is almost certainly over.
